'Great stay' persists as home turnovers sink to 30-year low

The share of homes changing hands hasn't been this low since the mid-90s, Redfin economists report. The biggest culprit? Mortgage rates.

The "Great Stay" is now at three years and counting as housing market and economic factors continue to keep Americans stuck in place, according to a new Redfin report.

Through the third quarter of 2025, only 28 out of every 1,000 U.S. homes changed hands — the lowest turnover rate in at least 30 years, Redfin found. The turnover rate is defined as the number of homes sold in the first nine months of the year divided by the total number of sellable homes.

While Redfin has only been tracking this metric since 2012, its analysts "can confidently say this year's 2.8% turnover rate is the lowest since at least the early-mid 1990s," the authors noted.

Familiar culprits: Why are homes failing to turn over at a faster rate? A combination of all-too-familiar factors are at play: Affordability challenges are keeping buyers out of the market; the mortgage rate lock-in effect, while easing, continues to handcuff some sellers; other sellers are simply waiting until selling conditions improve; and ongoing economic uncertainty has made consumers more skittish.

"America's housing market is defined right now by caution," said Chen Zhao, Redfin's head of economics research. "When both [buyers and sellers] hesitate, sales naturally fall to historic lows."

Movement over the past decade: The highest housing turnover rate was 44 per 1,000 in 2021, when mortgage rates were ultra-low. Between 2015-2019, the annual turnover rate was around 40 per 1,000.

Labor market impacts: Housing market factors are just one component of The Great Stay — the other is employment. The latest labor market data, released in early September, showed the U.S. added far fewer jobs than expected in August — and fewer hiring opportunities means fewer moves.

It's currently unclear how much the labor market is continuing to shift, however, with some jobs data on hold due to the federal government shutdown and private data sources drying up.

How listings, mortgage rates affect turnover: The number of homes being listed for sale is also hovering around historic lows. 

For 2025, the rate of listings was 38.7 per 1,000 homes, which is an improvement over 2024 (37.4 per 1,000) and 2023 (35.1 per 1,000) — but it's well below pre-pandemic rates, which were typically in the high 40s and low 50s, peaking at 54.4 in 2015.

Even a modest uptick in new listings would push up the turnover rate, according to Redfin Senior Economist Sheharyar Bokhari, but until listings return to those pre-pandemic levels, any increases will be small. 

The biggest driver right now is mortgage rates, according to Bokhari.

"Until mortgage rates fall enough to motivate existing homeowners to sell, we're unlikely to see a major rebound in turnover," Bokhari said in an email.

Regional differences: The Sun Belt has generally maintained higher turnover rates, but that has softened in the past year.

In 2025, Virginia Beach, Virginia, had the highest turnover rate at 35.2 per 1,000, followed by the Florida metros of West Palm Beach (32.6) and Tampa (31.2).

Redfin's report noted California cities tend to have lower turnover partly because of Proposition 13, which restricts property tax growth for those who stay in their homes.

New York City had the lowest turnover rate in 2025 at 10.3 per 1,000, followed by Los Angeles (11.5), San Francisco (13.2) and San Jose (14.8).

y Dave Gallagher